Under the seesaw effect of stock and debt, the bond market has gone bull again recently, and several term contracts of treasury bond futures have reached a new high.

Wind showed that as of April 23, the main contracts for 30-year and 10-year Treasury futures hit record highs. The 30-year main contract rose 0.Okumatelecarp.49% to 108.35 yuan, while the 10-year main contract rose 0.17% to 104.845 yuan.

For a long time, since the beginning of this year, the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures has risen 6.75%. The main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures has risen 1.86%.

While the bond market was bullish, bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield at 2.22 per cent as of press time, down about 2.3 basis points from yesterday, while the 30-year yield fell 2 basis points to 2.41 per cent.

Market analysts pointed out that in the near future, the bond market is characterized by low interest rates and fluctuations, which is still due to the shortage of assets, insufficient demand for credit and bond supply, which reduces the demand for funds, bringing about loose liquidity, but it is necessary to guard against the risk of market overheating, and there is a possibility that yields will rise for a long time in the future.

Boshi Fund told the Securities Times that the recent significant adjustment in overseas risky assets has slowed the recent upward pace of overseas interest rates and slightly reduced domestic risk appetite, which has also contributed to the decline in Chinese bond yields. From the high-frequency data, second-hand housing prices so far there is no sign of stabilization, which means that the current credit expansion is weak, the "asset shortage" pattern has not been effectively alleviated. The non-real estate chain has stabilized recently, which means that the rate of decline in interest rates may slow, but the continued decline in property prices means that the direction of downward interest rates has not been reversed.

Boshi Fund believes that at present, the stabilization of real estate prices is a prerequisite for interest rates to rebound upward. There has been a significant adjustment in overseas risk assets recently, so we should pay attention to the impact of the decline in overseas risk asset prices on China's risk appetite, which may also lead to a decline in Chinese interest rates.

According to the research view of Cinda Securities, although the growth rate of GDP in the first quarter exceeded market expectations, the market's pessimistic expectation of the macro economy has not changed. The recent NDRC press conference was generally interpreted as that it will take time for the supply of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to fall to the ground. Although the central bank mentioned "preventing interest rates from being too low", the market generally believed that the central bank would not take measures to intervene in the short term. 10-year government bonds have hit their lowest level since 2002 again, and spreads between medium-and high-grade credit and two-perpetual bonds have fallen to historic lows.

Cinda Securities reminds investors that at present, optimism in the bond market is heating up significantly, but the uncertainty brought to the bond market by fundamentals, the attitude of the central bank and changes in the pattern of bond supply and demand also seems to be increasing. These uncertainties need to be thought calmly.

A lot of data released recently reflect that the economy is stable and improving, but the bond market seems to have passivated the fundamental information. China International Capital Corporation believes that the current market concerns about economic growth, physical risk appetite has not been reversed, capital activity boost is limited, bond market capital inflows may continue in the short term. On the one hand, the improvement of physical financing demand is limited, and it is difficult to see a fundamental reversal of the "asset shortage" pattern in the short term. On the other hand, the recent potential rise in geopolitical risks, risk aversion still has the upper hand, safe-haven asset management products may still usher in sustained capital inflows.

In terms of central bank policy, China International Capital Corporation expects that there is still room for monetary policy relaxation, and exchange rate restrictions may be weakened in the second quarter, which will not become the core constraint for central bank policy loosening. On the contrary, if exchange rate pressure is further released, the central bank may open a channel for further relaxation, especially in the use of price-based instruments, taking into account the current interest rate differential pressure of financial institutions, the limited decline in real interest rates, the insignificant boost in capital activity, and so on. It is still necessary to lower the policy interest rate. In addition, the downward guidance of deposit interest rates is also worthy of great attention. In addition to the further reduction of the listed interest rate curve, the control of behaviors such as "soliciting deposits with high interest rates" may more effectively promote the downward movement of the real deposit interest rate curve.

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